Hawthorn vs Sydney Prediction & Stats – AFL Round 7

The Hawthorn Hawks (1-5) face the Sydney Swans (5-1) at the MCG. Let’s take a look at the betting lines for Sunday’s AFL matchup.

• The Hawks have a 4-2 O/U record this season (meaning four games have gone over the total points line and two have gone under). The Swans have a 3-3 O/U record.

Scoring Insights

• The Hawks are averaging 72.0 points per game this season (16th in the league). Comparatively, the Swans are averaging +29.7 more at 101.7 points (2nd).
• Defensively, the Hawks are giving up a whopping 93.3 points per game this season (T15th in the league), while the Swans are giving up an average of 75.2 points (5th).

First Quarter Winner

• Here are their first quarter records in 2024.

	Total	Home	Away	Favourite	Underdog	At the MCG	Last 5
Hawthorn	1-5-0	0-2-0	1-3-0	1-0-0	0-5-0	0-3-0	1-4-0
Sydney	4-2-0	3-0-0	1-2-0	4-1-0	0-1-0	0-2-0	3-2-0

First Half Winner

• Here are their first half records in 2024.

	Total	Home	Away	Favourite	Underdog	At the MCG	Last 5
Hawthorn	1-5-0	0-2-0	1-3-0	1-0-0	0-5-0	0-3-0	1-4-0
Sydney	5-1-0	3-0-0	2-1-0	4-1-0	1-0-0	2-0-0	4-1-0

HT/FT

• The Hawks have completed the HT/FT double in 16.7% of games this season, while the Swans have completed the HT/FT double in 66.7% of games.

Margin Betting

• Here are the Hawks’ Margin Betting records in 2024.

Total	Home	Away	Favourite	Underdog
W1-39	W40+	L1-39	L40+	W1-39	W40+	L1-39	L40+	W1-39	W40+	L1-39	L40+	W1-39	W40+	L1-39	L40+	W1-39	W40+	L1-39	L40+
0	1	3	2	0	0	1	1	0	1	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	3	2

• These are the Swans’ Margin Betting records in 2024.

Total	Home	Away	Favourite	Underdog
W1-39	W40+	L1-39	L40+	W1-39	W40+	L1-39	L40+	W1-39	W40+	L1-39	L40+	W1-39	W40+	L1-39	L40+	W1-39	W40+	L1-39	L40+
4	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	2	0	1	0	3	1	1	0	1	0	0	0

Tribet

• Here is the Hawks’ Tribet record in 2024.

Total	Home	Away	Favourite	Underdog
Hawks -15.5	15 or less	Opponent -15.5	Hawks -15.5	15 or less	Opponent -15.5	Hawks -15.5	15 or less	Opponent -15.5	Hawks -15.5	15 or less	Opponent -15.5	Hawks -15.5	15 or less	Opponent -15.5
1	1	4	0	0	2	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	1	4

• These are the Swans’ Tribet records in 2024.

Total	Home	Away	Favourite	Underdog
Swans -15.5	15 or less	Opponent -15.5	Swans -15.5	15 or less	Opponent -15.5	Swans -15.5	15 or less	Opponent -15.5	Swans -15.5	15 or less	Opponent -15.5	Swans -15.5	15 or less	Opponent -15.5
5	1	0	3	0	0	2	1	0	4	1	0	1	0	0

Disposals

• Looking at their disposal averages in 2024, Hawthorn has accumulated 345.5 per game, while Sydney has conceded 350.8.
• Conversely, Sydney has averaged 362.5 per contest, while Hawthorn has conceded 354.5.

Player Props

Let’s take a look at some of the best value plays for player markets in Sunday’s matchup.

Jarman Impey

15+ disposals

• Jarman Impey has averaged 18.2 disposals this season.
• Jarman Impey has averaged 20.0 disposals in his last three games.
• At the MCG, Jarman Impey has averaged 16.3 disposals this season.
• Jarman Impey has averaged 12.3 disposals per game in his last three appearances against Sydney.
• Jarman Impey has recorded 15+ disposals in each of his six games (100.0%) this season.
• Jarman Impey has recorded 15+ disposals in each of his last 13 games.
• At the MCG, he has recorded 15+ disposals in each of his last 11 games.
• Jarman Impey has recorded 15+ disposals in three of his last five appearances against Sydney.

Isaac Heeney

25+ disposals

• Isaac Heeney has averaged 28.0 disposals this season.
• Isaac Heeney has averaged 23.2 disposals in his last 10 games.
• When playing interstate, Isaac Heeney has averaged 27.3 disposals this season.
• Isaac Heeney has averaged 22.3 disposals per game in his three career appearances against Hawthorn at the MCG.
• Isaac Heeney has recorded 25+ disposals in each of his six games (100.0%) this season.
• Isaac Heeney has recorded 25+ disposals in each of his last six games.
• When playing interstate, he has recorded 25+ disposals in each of his three games (100.0%) this season.
• Isaac Heeney has recorded 25+ disposals in each of his last two appearances against Hawthorn at the MCG.

James Worpel

25+ disposals

• James Worpel has averaged 23.0 disposals this season.
• James Worpel has averaged 13.5 disposals in his last two games.
• At the MCG, James Worpel has averaged 31.5 disposals in his last two games.
• James Worpel has averaged 16.5 disposals per game in his last two appearances against Sydney.
• James Worpel has recorded 25+ disposals in three of his six games (50.0%) this season.
• James Worpel has recorded 25+ disposals in 16 of his last 23 games.
• At the MCG, he has recorded 25+ disposals in each of his three games (100.0%) this season.

Justin McInerney

20+ disposals

• Justin McInerney has averaged 21.8 disposals this season.
• Justin McInerney has averaged 23.5 disposals in his last two games.
• When playing interstate, Justin McInerney has averaged 21.0 disposals this season.
• Justin McInerney recorded 16 disposals in his most recent appearance against Hawthorn during Round 2, 2023.
• Justin McInerney has recorded 20+ disposals in each of his six games (100.0%) this season.
• Justin McInerney has recorded 20+ disposals in each of his last six games.
• When playing interstate, he has recorded 20+ disposals in each of his last three games.
• Justin McInerney has recorded 20+ disposals in one of his last two appearances against Hawthorn.

Joel Amartey

2+ Goal Scorer

• Joel Amartey has kicked 11 goals this season – T18th in the AFL.
• When playing interstate, he has kicked 10 goals from his last five appearances.
• Joel Amartey has kicked 6 goals in his two career appearances against Hawthorn.
• Joel Amartey has kicked 2+ goals in four of his six appearances this season.
• Joel Amartey has kicked 2+ goals in each of his last four appearances.
• When playing interstate, he’s kicked 2+ goals in each of his last two appearances.
• In each of Joel Amartey’s two career appearances against Hawthorn he has kicked 2+ goals.