Brisbane vs Collingwood Prediction & Stats – AFL Round 3
Check out our Brisbane vs Collingwood prediction now! See all the odds for the AFL clash for Lions vs Magpies at the Gabba.
The Brisbane Lions (0-2) face the Collingwood Magpies (0-3) at the Gabba. Let’s take a look at the betting lines for Thursday’s AFL matchup. The total points line is set at 164.5, with OVER at $1.90 and UNDER at $1.90, meaning the implied expected score prediction for the game is 90-74 Brisbane.
- The Lions (-16.5 @ $1.90) have a 13-15 Line record since the beginning of last season, while the Magpies (+16.5 @ $1.90) hold a record of 15-14 across the same span.
- The Lions have a 15-13 O/U record since the beginning of last season (meaning 15 games have gone over the total points line and 13 have gone under). The Magpies have a 17-12 O/U record.
Scoring Insights
- The Lions have scored 93.4 points per game since the beginning of last season (2nd in the league). Comparatively, the Magpies have averaged 91.2 over the same span (4th).
- Defensively, the Lions have allowed 78.0 points per game since the beginning of last season (6th in the league), while the Magpies have given up an average of 76.8 points over that span (4th).
First Quarter Winner
Brisbane is $1.58 to win the first quarter, while Collingwood is $2.28.
- Here are their first quarter records since the beginning of last season.
Total | Home | Away | Favourite | Underdog | At the Gabba | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brisbane | 19-8-1 | 11-3-0 | 8-5-1 | 17-6-1 | 2-2-0 | 11-3-0 |
Collingwood | 18-9-2 | 11-3-1 | 7-6-1 | 17-6-2 | 1-3-0 | 1-0-0 |
First Half Winner
Brisbane is $1.49 to win the first half and Collingwood is $2.55.
- Here are their first half records since the beginning of last season.
Total | Home | Away | Favourite | Underdog | At the Gabba | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brisbane | 20-8-0 | 12-2-0 | 8-6-0 | 17-7-0 | 3-1-0 | 12-2-0 |
Collingwood | 16-13-0 | 9-6-0 | 7-7-0 | 15-10-0 | 1-3-0 | 0-1-0 |
HT/FT
Brisbane is $1.70 to complete the HT/FT double. Conversely, Collingwood is $4.10.
- The Lions have completed the HT/FT double in 57.1% of games since the beginning of last season, while the Magpies have completed the HT/FT double in 48.3% of games.
Margin Betting
Brisbane is paying $2.02 to win by 1-39 points and $3.75 to win by 40+ on Thursday. Meanwhile, Collingwood is $3.45 to win by 1-39 and $16.00 to win by 40+. A draw is paying $51.00.
- Here are the Lions’ Margin Betting records since the beginning of last season.
Total | Home | Away | Favourite | Underdog | |||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
W1-39 | W40+ | L1-39 | L40+ | W1-39 | W40+ | L1-39 | L40+ | W1-39 | W40+ | L1-39 | L40+ | W1-39 | W40+ | L1-39 | L40+ | W1-39 | W40+ | L1-39 | L40+ |
12 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
- These are the Magpies’ Margin Betting records since the beginning of last season.
Total | Home | Away | Favourite | Underdog | |||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
W1-39 | W40+ | L1-39 | L40+ | W1-39 | W40+ | L1-39 | L40+ | W1-39 | W40+ | L1-39 | L40+ | W1-39 | W40+ | L1-39 | L40+ | W1-39 | W40+ | L1-39 | L40+ |
15 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Tribet
- Here is the Lions’ Tribet record since the beginning of last season.
Total | Home | Away | Favourite | Underdog | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lions -15.5 | 15 or less | Opponent -15.5 | Lions -15.5 | 15 or less | Opponent -15.5 | Lions -15.5 | 15 or less | Opponent -15.5 | Lions -15.5 | 15 or less | Opponent -15.5 | Lions -15.5 | 15 or less | Opponent -15.5 |
14 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
- These are the Magpies’ Tribet records since the beginning of last season.
Total | Home | Away | Favourite | Underdog | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Magpies -15.5 | 15 or less | Opponent -15.5 | Magpies -15.5 | 15 or less | Opponent -15.5 | Magpies -15.5 | 15 or less | Opponent -15.5 | Magpies -15.5 | 15 or less | Opponent -15.5 | Magpies -15.5 | 15 or less | Opponent -15.5 |
10 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Disposals
- Looking at their disposal averages since the beginning of last season, Brisbane has accumulated 342.7 per game, while Collingwood has conceded 363.1.
- Conversely, Collingwood has averaged 365.4 per contest, while Brisbane has conceded 359.8.
Brisbane vs Collingwood Player Tips
Let’s take a look at some of the best value plays for player markets in Thursday’s matchup.
Joe Daniher
3+ Goal Scorer
Joe Daniher is paying $2.50 to kick 3+ goals against Collingwood.
- Joe Daniher has kicked 65 goals since the beginning of last season – 5th in the AFL.
- He has kicked 42 goals from his last 15 appearances at the Gabba.
- Joe Daniher has kicked 18 goals in his last six appearances against Collingwood.
- Joe Daniher has kicked 3+ goals in 10 of his 28 appearances since the beginning of last season.
- Joe Daniher has kicked 3+ goals in two of his last three appearances.
- At the Gabba, he’s kicked 3+ goals in 16 of his last 29 appearances.
- In each of Joe Daniher’s last two appearances against Collingwood he has kicked 3+ goals.
Jordan De Goey
Anytime Goalscorer
Jordan De Goey is paying $2.00 to kick a goal against Brisbane.
- Jordan De Goey has kicked 1 goal this season – T129th in the AFL.
- He has kicked five goals from his last two appearances at the Gabba.
- Jordan De Goey has kicked 14 goals in his last five appearances against Brisbane at the Gabba.
- Jordan De Goey has kicked at least one goal in one of his three appearances this season.
- Jordan De Goey has kicked at least one goal in 78 of his last 111 appearances.
- At the Gabba, he’s kicked at least one goal in each of his last three appearances.
- In each of Jordan De Goey’s last eight appearances against Brisbane he has kicked at least one goal.
Bobby Hill
2+ Goal Scorer
Bobby Hill is paying $2.85 to kick 2+ goals against Brisbane.
- Bobby Hill has kicked 5 goals this season – T14th in the AFL.
- When playing interstate, he has kicked eight goals from his last four appearances.
- Bobby Hill has kicked six goals in his last two appearances against Brisbane.
- Bobby Hill has kicked 2+ goals in two of his three appearances this season.
- Bobby Hill has kicked 2+ goals in three of his last four appearances.
- When playing interstate, he’s kicked 2+ goals in three of his last four appearances.
- In each of Bobby Hill’s last two appearances against Brisbane he has kicked 2+ goals.
Darcy Wilmot
15+ disposals
Darcy Wilmot is paying $1.27 to record 15+ disposals.
- Darcy Wilmot has averaged 15.9 disposals since the beginning of last season.
- Darcy Wilmot has averaged 16.7 disposals in his last three games.
- At the Gabba, Darcy Wilmot has averaged 19.8 disposals in his last six games.
- Darcy Wilmot recorded 12 disposals in his most recent appearance against Collingwood during Grand Final, 2023.
- Darcy Wilmot has recorded 15+ disposals in 20 of his 28 games (71.4%) since the beginning of last season.
- Darcy Wilmot has recorded 15+ disposals in each of his last two games.
- At the Gabba, he has recorded 15+ disposals in each of his last 12 games.
- Darcy Wilmot has recorded 15+ disposals in one of his last two appearances against Collingwood.
Marcus Bazzano
Marcus has written and published hundreds of tips & news articles daily, with the majority of his AFL same game multi selections being featured on Sportsbet’s ‘Popular Same Game Multi’, showcasing that punters follow his insights